Voting Begins in the Netherlands as Surveys Point to Possible Second Victory for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.