Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.
The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.
This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.
The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.
This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".
Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.
DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.
Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.
That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.
In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.
Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.
There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.
Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.
However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.
Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.
Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.
However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.
Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.
President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.
A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.
Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.
This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.
"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."
Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?
Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.
Elara is a seasoned writer and digital storyteller with a passion for exploring diverse literary genres and empowering others through words.
