A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
